The description-experience gap: A meta-analysis

Álvaro Viúdez; José Keating; Joana Arantes

doi:10.19230/jonnpr.3658

Autores/as

Álvaro Viúdez Department of Basic Psychology, University of Minho, Braga, Portugal
José Keating Department of Basic Psychology, University of Minho, Braga, Portugal
Joana Arantes Department of Basic Psychology, University of Minho, Braga, Portugal

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.19230/jonnpr.3658

Palabras clave:

brecha descripción-experiencia, conducta de elección, toma de decisiones, Teoría de los Prospectos Cumulativos

Resumen

La conducta de elección difiere según cómo se presente la información de las opciones a los sujetos, via descripciones o experiencia(1), un fenómeno llamado la brecha descripción-experiencia. La Teoría de los Prospectos(2) apunta una sobre-ponderación de eventos raros; pero cuando se experimentan opciones en lugar de describirse, se encuentra el resultado opuesto: los eventos raros se infravaloran (1,3). Nuestro meta-análisis estudió tres factores importantes sobre la brecha descripción-experiencia relacionada con la teoría de la perspectiva acumulativa: la sobrevaloración y la subestimación de eventos raros en tareas basadas en la descripción y la experiencia, el dominio de la tarea y la probabilidad del evento raro. Además de estos tres elementos, se estudiaron otros tres factores adicionales: la existencia de una opción determinada, el paradigma de la tarea de descripción y el paradigma de la tarea de experiencia. Recientemente, se publicó un metaanálisis sobre este tema(4), que se centró en un tipo específico de paradigma de tarea de experiencia llamado muestreo. En el presente meta-análisis, nos centramos en el otro paradigma de la tarea de experiencia principal, el paradigma de retroalimentación, y la combinación de ambos paradigmas, para ver si podíamos encontrar efectos diferenciales entre su enfoque meta-analítico y el nuestro. Sin embargo, éste no fue el caso, ya que encontramos resultados similares: el efecto es consistente en todos los factores y métodos. Concluimos que el hecho de que el modelo de referencia(2) es descriptivo y que el factor más frecuentemente evocado para explicar la brecha entre la descripción y la experiencia sean los sesgos de muestreo en las tareas basadas en la experiencia, que son parte de la metodología de la tarea misma, sugiere que la brecha descripción-experiencia es un fenómeno psicológico irreducible (es decir, un fenómeno que no se basa en otros mecanismos psicológicos, sino únicamente en la metodología de la tarea).

Descargas

Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.

Citas

Artinger, F., Fleischhut, N., Levati, M. V., & Stevens, J. R. (2012). Cooperation in a risky environment: Decisions from experience in a stochastic social dilemma. In N. Miyake, D. Peebles, & R. P. Cooper (Eds.), Proceedings of the 34th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 84–89). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.

Ashby, N. J. S. (2017). Numeracy predicts preference consistency: Deliberative search heuristics increase choice consistency for choices from description and experience. Judgment and Decision Making, 12(2), 128–139.

Barron, G., & Erev, I. (2003). Small Feedback-based Decisions and Their Limited Correspondence to Description-based Decisions. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 16(3), 215–233.

Borenstein, M., Hedges, L. V., Higgins, J. P. T., & Rothstein, H. R. (2009). Subgroup analyses. In Introduction to Meta-Analysis. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Borenstein, M., Hedges, L. V., Higgins, J., & Rothstein, H. R. (2014). Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (Version 3.0) [Computer software]. Englewood, N.J.: Biostat.

Borenstein, M., & Higgins, J. P. T. (2013). Meta-analysis and subgroups. Prevention Science, 14(2), 134–143.

Borenstein, M., Higgins, J. P. T., Rothstein, H. R., & Hedges, L. V. (2017). I2 is not an absolute measure of heterogeneity in a meta-analysis. Retrieved from https://www.meta-analysis-workshops.com/download/common-mistakes1.pdf

Camilleri, A. R., & Newell, B. R. (2009a). The role of representation in experience-based choice. Judgment and Decision Making, 4(7), 518–529.

Camilleri, A. R., & Newell, B. R. (2009b). Within-subject preference reversals in description- and experience-based choice. In N. Taatgen, H. van Rijn, L. Schomaker, & J. Nerbonne (Eds.), Proceedings of the 31st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 449–454). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.

Camilleri, A. R., & Newell, B. R. (2011a). Description- and experience-based choice: Does equivalent information equal equivalent choice? Acta Psychologica, 136(3), 276–284.

Camilleri, A. R., & Newell, B. R. (2011b). When and why rare events are underweighted: A direct comparison of the sampling, partial feedback, full feedback and description choice paradigms. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 18(2), 377–384.

Camilleri, A. R., & Newell, B. R. (2013). The long and short of it: Closing the description-experience “gap” by taking the long-run view. Cognition, 126(1), 54–71.

Catania, A. C., Matthews, B. A., & Shimoff, E. (1982). Instructed versus shaped human verbal behavior: Interactions with nonverbal responding. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 38(3), 233–248.

Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (Version 3) [Computer software]. Englewood, NJ: Biostat.

Dersimonian, R., & Laird, N. (1986). Meta-Analysis in clinical trials. Controlled Clinical Trials, 7, 177–188.

Dutt, V., & Gonzalez, C. (2012a). Decisions from experience reduce misconceptions about climate change. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 32(1), 19–29.

Dutt, V., & Gonzalez, C. (2012b). Why Do We Want to Delay Actions on Climate Change? Effects of Probability and Timing of Climate Consequences. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 25(2), 154–164.

Erev, I., Ert, E., Roth, A. E., Haruvy, E., Herzog, S. M., Hau, R., … Lebiere, C. (2010). A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 23(1), 15–47.

Erev, I., & Roth, A. E. (2014). Maximization, learning, and economic behavior. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(Supplement 3), 10818–10825.

Fantino, E., & Navarro, A. (2012). Description-experience Gaps: Assessments in Other Choice Paradigms. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 25(3), 303–314.

Fox, C. R., & Hadar, L. (2006). “Decisions from experience” = sampling error + prospect theory: Reconsidering Hertwig, Barron, Weber & Erev (2004). Judgment and Decision Making, 1(2), 159–161.

Galizio, M. (1979). Contingency-shaped and rule-governed behavior: Instructional control of human loss avoidance. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 31(1), 53–70.

Glöckner, A., Fiedler, S., Hochman, G., Ayal, S., & Hilbig, B. E. (2012). Processing differences between descriptions and experience: a comparative analysis using eye-tracking and physiological measures. Frontiers in Psychology, 3(173), 1–15.

Glöckner, A., Hilbig, B. E., Henninger, F., & Fiedler, S. (2016). The Reversed Description-Experience Gap: Disentangling Sources of Presentation Format Effects in Risky Choice. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 145(4), 486–508.

Gottlieb, D. A., Weiss, T., & Chapman, G. B. (2007). The Format in Which Is Information Uncertainty Decision Biases Presented Affects. Psychological Science, 18(3), 240–246.

Griffin, D., & Brenner, L. (2008). Perspectives on Probability Judgment Calibration. In D. J. Koehler & N. Harvey (Eds.), Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making (pp. 177–199). Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Haidich, A. B. (2010). Meta-analysis in medical research. Hippokratia, 14(Suppl 1), 29–37.

Harman, J. L., & Gonzalez, C. (2015). Allais from Experience: Choice Consistency, Rare Events, and Common Consequences in Repeated Decisions. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 28(4), 369–381.

Hau, R., Pleskac, T. J., & Hertwig, R. (2010). Decisions From Experience and Statistical Probabilities: Why They Trigger Different Choices Than a Priori Probabilities. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 23(1), 48–68.

Hau, R., Pleskac, T. J., Kiefer, J., & Hertwig, R. (2008). The Description-Experience Gap in Risky Choice: The Role of Sample Size and Experienced Probabilities. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 21(5), 493–518.

Hertwig, R. (2012). The psychology and rationality of decisions from experience. Synthese, 187(1), 269–292.

Hertwig, R., Barron, G., Weber, E. U., & Erev, I. (2004). Decisions from Experience and the Effect of Rare Events in Risky Choice. Psychological Science, 15(8), 534–539.

Hilbig, B. E., & Glöckner, A. (2011). Yes, they can! Appropriate weighting of small probabilities as a function of information acquisition. Acta Psychologica, 138(3), 390–396.

Kellen, D., Pachur, T., & Hertwig, R. (2016). How (in)variant are subjective representations of described and experienced risk and rewards? Cognition, 157, 126–138.

Knight, F. H. (1921). Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. New York: Sentry Press.

Kudryavtsev, A., & Pavlodsky, J. (2012). Description-based and experience-based decisions: individual analysis. Judgment and Decision Making, 7(3), 316–331.

Lejarraga, T. (2010). When Experience Is Better Than Description: Time Delays and Complexity. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 23(1), 100–116.

Lejarraga, T., & Gonzalez, C. (2011). Effects of feedback and complexity on repeated decisions from description. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 116(2), 286–295.

Lejarraga, T., Pachur, T., Frey, R., & Hertwig, R. (2016). Decisions from Experience: From Monetary to Medical Gambles. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 29(1), 67–77.

Liberman, V., & Tversky, A. (1993). On the Evaluation of Probability Judgments: Calibration, Resolution, and Monotonicity. Psychological Bulletin, 114(1), 162–173.

Ludvig, E. A., & Spetch, M. L. (2011). Of Black Swans and Tossed Coins: Is the Description-Experience Gap in Risky Choice Limited to Rare Events? PloS One, 6(6), e20262.

Madan, C. R., Ludvig, E. A., & Spetch, M. L. (2017). The role of memory in distinguishing risky decisions from experience and description. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 70(10), 2048–2059.

Martin, J. M., Gonzalez, C., Juvina, I., & Lebiere, C. (2014). A Description-Experience Gap in Social Interactions: Information about Interdependence and Its Effects on Cooperation. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 27(4), 349–362.

Matthews, B. A., Catania, A. C., & Shimoff, E. (1985). Effects of uninstructed verbal behavior on nonverbal responding: Contingency descriptions versus performance descriptions. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 43(2), 155–164.

Matthews, B. A., Shimoff, E., Catania, A. C., & Sagvolden, T. (1977). Uninstructed human responding: Sensitivity to ratio and interval contingencies. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 27(3), 453–467.

Mchugh, M. L. (2012). Interrater reliability: the kappa statistic. Biochemia Medica, 22(3), 276–282.

Oeberst, A., Haberstroh, S., & Gnambs, T. (2015). Not really the same: Computerized and real lotteries in decision making research. Computers in Human Behavior, 44, 250–257.

Rakow, T., Demes, K. A., & Newell, B. R. (2008). Biased samples not mode of presentation: Re-examining the apparent underweighting of rare events in experience-based choice. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 106(2), 168–179.

Rakow, T., & Newell, B. R. (2010). Degrees of Uncertainty: An Overview and Framework for Future Research on Experience-Based Choice. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 23(1), 1–14.

Rakow, T., & Rahim, S. B. (2010). Developmental Insights into Experience-based Decision Making. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 23(1), 69–82.

Shannon, C. E. (1948). A Mathematical Theory of Communication. Bell System Technical Journal, 27(3), 379–423.

Shimoff, E., Catania, A. C., & Matthews, B. A. (1981). Uninstructed human responding: Sensitivity of low-rate performance to schedule contingencies. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 36(2), 207–220.

Skinner, B. F. (1938). The Behavior of Organisms: An Experimental Analysis. (R. M. Elliott, Ed.). Appleton-Century-Crofts.

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1992). Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5(4), 297–323.

Ungemach, C., Chater, N., & Stewart, N. (2009). Are Probabilities Overweighted or Underweighted When Rare Outcomes Are Experienced (Rarely)? Psychological Science, 20(4), 473–479.

Viudez, A., Keating, J., & Arantes, J. (2017). The description-experience gap and its relation to instructional control: Do people rely more on their experience than in objective descriptions? Journal of Negative and No Positive Results, 2(12), 667–675.

Weber, E. U., Shafir, S., & Blais, A.-R. (2004). Predicting Risk Sensitivity in Humans and Lower Animals: Risk as Variance or Coefficient of Variation. Psychological Review, 111(2), 430–445.

Wulff, D. U., Canseco, M. M., & Hertwig, R. (2018). A meta-analytic review of two modes of learning and the description-experience gap. Psychological Bulletin, 144(2), 111–139.

Wulff, D. U., Hills, T. T., & Hertwig, R. (2015). Online Product Reviews and the Description-Experience Gap. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 28(3), 214–223.

Yechiam, E., Barron, G., & Erev, I. (2005). The Role of Personal Experience in Contributing to Different Patterns of Response to Rare Terrorist Attacks. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49(3), 430–439.

Yoon, S., Vo, K., & Venkatraman, V. (2017). Variability in decision strategies across description-based and experience-based decision making. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making.